The Census Project Blog

By Patricia Becker
The author is a demographer, president of APB Associates, and executive director of the Southeast Michigan Census Council.

When the census starts next spring, hundreds of thousands of U.S. residents will be in the middle of an annual migration that could have significant consequences for the count’s accuracy and the distribution of political representation and federal resources. Known as “snowbirds,” because they “fly south” to spend the winter in a warmer climate, many of these people consider the North their “home.”

Census rules say people should be enumerated where they live “most of the time.” Most is undefined but for snowbirds can mean six months or more; if they stay in a warmer state less than half the year, they should be counted at their northern residence. However, many snowbirds are still staying at their second homes on April 1.

This means a lot of confusion for the census. Snowbirds will receive pre-addressed questionnaires at both their winter residences and temporarily unoccupied northern homes in March.

There were specific fixes for this problem in the past. In 1990, people with a “usual residence elsewhere” could provide an alternate address; the Census Bureau transferred these respondents to the more permanent home. The 2000 questionnaire instructed respondents not to include people who lived somewhere else “most of the time.”  For 2010, Question 10 asks if a person sometimes lives elsewhere and, if so, “at a seasonal or second residence.”

The U.S. Postal Service will not forward census forms, so most people are likely to fill out the questionnaire they receive at their winter home. Even if they indicate a second residence, they will be counted in the southern state’s population.

Meanwhile, census takers will visit unresponsive northern homes in May and June, when most snowbirds have returned home. If the dual homeowner tells the enumerator they were living in their southern home on Census Day, they will not be enumerated up North, even if they live there most of the time.

To make it come out right, respondents should not fill out the southern questionnaires. They should write ‘zero’ for the number of April 1 residents, put “usual residence elsewhere” somewhere on the form, and mail it back. Then they should fill out the northern address questionnaire or respond to a census taker during door-to-door canvassing. Further, they have to say that they “lived” at the northern address on April 1 – after all, they actually did, but were just away on vacation.

The Census Bureau will not follow up on questionnaires that indicate a seasonal or second residence. So if the same people fill out forms at both locations, they will be double counted.

The Census Bureau blew it this time around. Northern states are at real risk of losing population that rightfully belongs to them, along with seats in Congress and federal funds, especially for programs that help seniors. It’s too late to fix this now, except to educate snowbirds. The real solution is to collect the “other address” – on both the census and the American Community Survey – for anyone who lives part of the year in one place and part in another, as well as the number of months in each place.  Then we could analyze what’s really going on and enumerate people where they really belong.